One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth forever.
Ecclesiastes
No, not forever. At the outside limit, the earth will probably last another 4 billion to 5 billion years. By that time, scientists predict, the sun will have burned up so much of its own hydrogen fuel that it will expand and incinerate the surrounding planets, including the earth. A nuclear cataclysm, on the other hand, could destroy the earth tomorrow. Somewhere within those extremes lies the life expectancy of this wondrous, swirling globe. How long it endures and the quality of life it can support do not depend alone on the immutable laws of physics. For man has reached a point in his evolution where he has the power to affect, for better or worse, the present and future state of the planet.
Through most of his 2 million years or so of existence, man has thrived in
earth's environment -- perhaps too well. By 1800 there were 1 billion human
beings bestriding the planet. That number had doubled by 1930 and doubled again
by 1975. If current birthrates hold, the world's present population of 5.1
billion will double again in 40 more years.
The reason is not so much the sheer numbers, though 40,000 babies die of
starvation each day in Third World countries, but the reckless way in which
humanity has treated its planetary host.
A stubborn seven-week heat wave drove temperatures above 100 degrees F across
much of the country, raising fears that the dreaded "greenhouse effect" --
global warming as a result of the buildup of carbon dioxide and other gases in
the atmosphere -- might already be under way. Parched by the lack of rain, the
Western forests of the U.S. went up in
flames. And on many of the
country's beaches, garbage, raw sewage and medical wastes washed up to spoil the
fun of bathers and confront them personally with the growing despoliation of the
oceans.
Similar pollution closed beaches on the Mediterranean, the North Sea and the
English Channel. Killer hurricanes ripped through the Caribbean and floods
devastated Bangladesh, reminders of nature's raw power. In Soviet Armenia a
monstrous earthquake killed some 55,000 people. That too was a natural disaster,
but its high casualty count, owing largely to the construction of cheap
high-rise apartment blocks over a well-known fault area, illustrated the
carelessness that has become humanity's habit in dealing with
nature.
The further depletion of the atmosphere's ozone layer, which helps block
cancer-causing ultraviolet rays, testified to the continued overuse of
atmosphere-destroying chlorofluorocarbons emanating from such sources as spray
cans and air- conditioners. Perhaps most ominous of all, the destruction of the
tropical forests, home to at least half the earth's plant and animal species,
continued at a rate equal to one football field a second.
What would happen if nothing were done about the earth's imperiled state?
According to computer projections, the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere
could drive up the planet's average temperature 3 degrees F to 9 degrees F by
the middle of the next century. That could cause the oceans to rise by several
feet, flooding coastal areas and ruining huge tracts of farmland through
salinization. Changing weather patterns could make huge areas infertile or
uninhabitable, touching off refugee movements unprecedented in
history.
Toxic waste and radioactive contamination could lead to shortages of safe
drinking water, the sine qua non of human existence. And in a world that could
house between 8 billion and 14 billion people by the mid-21st century, there is
a strong likelihood of mass starvation.
Let there be no illusions. Taking effective action to halt the massive injury to
the earth's environment will require a mobilization of political will,
international cooperation and sacrifice
We owe this not only to ourselves and our children but also to the unborn
generations who will one day inherit the earth.
